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    [外文翻译] 使用威布尔分析评估价格和计划实施

    资料分类:大阳城集团娱乐APP网址 - 毕业设计外文翻译 | 发布形式:资料共享 | 更新时间:2016-06-28 显示全部楼层

    Using Weibull Analysis for Evaluation of Cost and Schedule Performance

    Khaled M. Nassar1; Hordur G. Gunnarsson2; and Mohamed Y. Hegab, P.E.3

    Large amounts of money are lost each year in the construction industry because of poor schedule and cost control. Few contractors specify and follow systematic schedule monitoring practices. Traditionally, the earned value method  EVM  is used to control and monitor schedule performance using the schedule and cost performance indices which compare the budgeted cost of work performed to what was originally scheduled or what is actually expended. This paper presents a statistical approach, namely Weibull analysis, to evaluate stochastically the schedule performance of construction or design projects. The approach can be used in conjunction with the EVM to enhance the evaluation and control of schedule performance. Weibull analysis is a common method for failure analysis and reliability engineering used in a wide range of applications. In this paper, the applicability of Weibull analysis for evaluating and comparing the reliability of the schedule performance of multiple projects is presented. The various steps in the analysis are discussed along with an example in which two projects are analyzed and compared. The authors conclude that Weibull analysis has several advantages and provides a relatively robust and effective method for construction managers to better control and monitor their projects.
    Construction projects are seldom “on-schedule” all the time. The amount of work performed on the project usually fluctuates from one period to the other. In fact, according to the “80 / 20” rule.
    suggested by the 18th Century economist, Pareto 80% of the effort will be expended during 20% of the project duration. This creates a significant problem in trying to monitor the actual performance of the project schedule and specifically trying to decide whether or not the project can finish on time., the reliability of the project schedule performance .The earned value method EVM is often used as a project control technique to provide a quantitative measure of schedule performance. In the EVM, the schedule and cost performance indices C/SPI are used for constant monitoring of the project’s cost and schedule based on an original critical path method CPM schedule Chang 2001 .
    使用威布尔分析评估价格和计划实施
    Khaled M. Nassar; Hordur G. Gunnarsson; and Mohamed Y. Hegab, P.E.

    摘要:每年因为不合理的工程计划和成本控制,建筑业消耗了大量的资金。几乎没有承包商制定并实施对系统计划的监督行为。传统上,获利价值方法(EVM)被用于控制和监督计划实施,这种实施计划利用计划和价格实施索引将工程价格预算与普通计划或者实际的花费进行比较。本文通过威布尔分析统计方法随机地评估建筑业的实施计划或设计规划。这种方法与EVM结合使用,可以实现提高评估和控制计划实施的目的。在缺乏分析和可靠的工程时,威布尔分析法是一种被广泛应用的普通方法。本文证明,在评估和比较多样性项目的实施计划的可靠性等方面,威布尔分析法是可行性的。作者总结了威布尔分析法的若干优点,并为建筑业管理者可以更好地控制和监督项目,提供了一种应用灵活且高效的方法。
    关键词: 价格分析; 计划; 建筑管理.

    引言
    建筑规划几乎都不是“按照计划”进行的。大多数规划工作的实施都是在不同的阶段有不同的改变。事实上,根据“80/20”法则(由18世纪经济学家Pareto),20%的计划时间就消耗80%的资源。试着去监督计划的实践表现,特别是试着去决定计划是否能按时完成(比如计划实施的可靠性)或证明项目实施计划的可靠性就成为了一个重要的问题。获利价值方法(EVM)经常被当作一种可以提供实施计划定量分析的方法的项目控制技术使用。在EVM中,在最早的关键的计划的基础上(Chang 2001),计划和价格实施索引(C/SPI)常被用于对成本和计划持续监督。不幸的是,在一般情况下,对于实施计划,CPM是一种不切实际的期望。某天项目开工,于此同时,就期望项目在未来两三年的某一个精确是时间完成是不切实际的。因此,需要扩大计划分析技术,就像EVM,提供实施计划的可能性分析和风险评估。
    在其他的管理领域,像计算机软件设计和商业管理中,以可靠性,实用性和持续性,即RAM为主要出发点的工具主要被用于预报和避免突发性系统故障。现在,工程被用于预期和避免突然的系统错误(Ireson and Coombs 1988)。在工业发展方面,RAM工程正在成为最新的学科,属于新的精确定量分析方法。这些工具中,威布尔分析是最早被使用的,(Henley and Kumamoto 1996; Abernathy and Fulton 2000),广泛应用于制造业和工业工程领域。它主要用于模拟失误率或某些产品的使用寿命。通过使用这种特殊的分析技术,人能预测产品的寿命,比较竞争产品设计的可靠性,管理零部件的总量,以此来命名一些普通的工业设备(Dorner 1997, 1999)。

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    全部评论 已有12条评论 发表评论
    爱哭的鱼 2016-9-18 13:54
    真的是土木学子的家园,毕设不愁了。。。
    羊羊 2016-9-22 09:18
    不错的网站,赞一个
    文羊 2016-9-24 13:08
    不错不错,很全
    鲸鱼 2016-10-2 17:50
    谢谢!!学习了!
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